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The weekly picks
Nov 10, 2007KNOXVILLE—Sorry that I haven’t posted anything for the teeming masses who read this blog. Actually, if we even start getting a bare trickle, that will be a vast improvement.
Anyway, between the normal workload and cranking out copy for our basketball previews, the blog has had to take a back seat.
But while I have time this morning before the UT-Arkansas showdown, I’ll give you the weekly SEC picks.
Around the SEC
Arkansas at Tennessee
Looks like a dream matchup for Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and the Arkansas running game, doesn’t it? They’ll get a lot of yards and points, but the Volunteers will win the game. Why? UT is 5-0 at Neyland Stadium this year and has been a different team there. Its offense moves the ball, its defense seems to come up with big plays and it’s like it has a 12th man out there. Sounds cliched, but as someone who’s watched this team all year, I will vouch for it. Just like I’ll vouch for the Vols continuing to stay in control of the SEC East race after today. Tennessee 38, Arkansas 34.
Alabama at Mississippi St.
If I had some guts, I’d pick a Bulldog upset. The Crimson Tide invested a lot emotionally into last week’s mega-showdown with LSU and barely came up short. It’s not like Alabama is so talented they can just walk into Starkville, throw on those all-white unis and leave with a win. MSU isn’t bad and it’s rested to boot. But this is why Nick Saban makes $4 million a year—to win games like this. And in the end, the Tide will. Alabama 27, Mississippi State 24.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Every SEC East team has won its game coming off a bye this year. The Wildcats’ bye was last week and it was much-needed after a brutal stretch of SEC games which resulted in a pile of injuries. With rest, they face a Commodores team which just got plastered at Florida and may be running out of steam in their quest for their first bowl bid in 25 years. Kentucky 35, Vanderbilt 21.
Auburn at Georgia
Here’s the only stat you really need to know for this week: 11-3-1. That’s the record of the road team the last 15 years of this series. Since the Tigers are the road team, bet on them. They are physical enough to stop the Bulldogs’ run game and force Matthew Stafford to try to beat them. If I’m Tommy Tuberville, I take my chances with that parlay any day. Auburn 24, Georgia 17.
Florida at South Carolina
Looks like the Gamecocks’ chances for a breakthrough season expired when Ryan Succop’s field goal sailed wide right down here two weeks ago. I know Steve Spurrier will get the masses fired up for the Gators, but it’s hard to imagine a defense which got ripped as it did last week can magically stop Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and the Florida offense. Florida 37, South Carolina 27.
Louisiana Tech at LSU
This is the breather the Tigers sorely needed. The less said about this one, the better. LSU 49, Louisiana Tech 7.
Performance aside, confidence not an issue
Nov 02, 2007In its last two games, Tennessee’s mostly young, definitely not-ready-for-prime time secondary has yielded career games to Alabama’s D.J. Hall and South Carolina’s Kenny McKinley.
Just don’t tell Volunteers secondary coach Larry Slade this group needs a boost of confidence.
“I think they have plenty of confidence,” he said Tuesday. “Come watch them practice. There’s not a confidence problem with this group.”
Maybe so, but it can be safely assumed there’s a “covering receivers” issue. Opponents are throwing for nearly 260 yards per game against this crowd and completing 59 percent of their passes.
A lack of sacks hasn’t helped—UT has just 10 through eight games—and running six different starting alignments out there in the first eight games explains other things as well.
But another reason might be self-inflicted. Figuring that a constantly-changing group of players would be better served with simple schemes, the coaching staff has opted for soft coverage instead of an aggressive approach.
“We’d like to play more bump-and-run coverage,” cornerback DeAngelo Willingham said. “But you do what the coaches ask. It’s real frustrating [at times], but you have to play your coverage and assignment.”
Willingham and fellow corner Brent Vinson might get their wish if Slade’s response to a question at Tuesday’s press conference is any indication.
“It’s what we believe,” Slade said of the defensive philosophy. “It’s a matter of experience. Brent and those guys are outstanding athletes and they’re very capable of doing [press] coverage. You’ll see more of it.”
It might be worth taking a chance on, particularly tomorrow against Louisiana-Lafayette. The Vols do have good safeties in freshman Eric Berry and senior Jonathan Hefney, so why not take the training wheels off for a week?
Richt had it right
Some say what Georgia coach Mark Richt did last week was provocative.
I say even though it drew two 15-yard penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct, what he did helped the Bulldogs beat Florida.
If you haven’t heard, Richt told his offensive players to celebrate in the end zone as a team when Georgia scored its first touchdown Saturday.
Moments after Knowshon Moreno’s dive broke the goal line’s plane, the Bulldogs followed suit ... all 70 of them. Jumping up and down, Georgia drew the ire of Gators coach Urban Meyer and a pair of flags which forced it to kick off from the 8-yard line.
This act from another program—say the early 1990s era Miami Hurricanes—would have been seen as an exhibition of thuggery and intimidation.
But Richt is one of the sport’s classier coaches and he had more than built up enough equity in this instance. Remember last month, when some of his players jumped up and down on Vanderbilt’s logo after a game-winning field goal?
An angry Richt shoved them away from the logo, shook coach Bobby Johnson’s hand and apologized for the display.
So cut Richt some slack here. This didn’t incite a thing, other than a big win for his program.
Which, by the way, was one call we got right in this space last week as we went 5-1 to make us 14-4 over the last three weeks. Kentucky’s unaccountable tank job against Mississippi State kept us from a perfect record.
Now for this week’s batch of picks (wagering should be done for entertainment purposes only, hehehe):
Vanderbilt at Florida
The Commodores definitely have the better defense and nothing to lose. But I don’t think they have enough offense, particularly with injury concerns about their top two quarterbacks. And remember that the Gators haven’t played a home game since Sept. 29. This could be close, but I just don’t see a scenario under which Vandy wins. Florida 27, Vanderbilt 13.
Troy at Georgia
Talk about your trap games. The Bulldogs can’t help but look ahead to next week’s biggie with Auburn on some level. The Trojans and dual-threat QB Omar Haugabook are just dangerous enough to make this a game going into the fourth quarter. But in the end, Georgia is physically more superior and enforces a win. Georgia 30, Troy 20.
Northwestern State at Ole Miss
Bad I-AA team goes to bad I-A team. With LSU and Mississippi State left on the schedule, this may be Rebels coach Ed Orgeron’s last chance for a win. It’s getting harder by the day to imagine him being the coach of this team next year. Ole Miss 38, Northwestern State 17.
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
Wonder if Tommy Tuberville tried to use Appalachian State 34, Michigan 32 as an excuse to fire up his players for this one? If so, I’ll bet his players just laughed. Tennessee Tech is 4-5 and just here for a healthy paycheck. Auburn 42, Tennessee Tech 7.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Tennessee
Should be a great game for Erik Ainge, Arian Foster, Montario Hardesty and a bunch of wide receivers to pad their stats. But don’t be surprised if the Ragin’ Cajuns run for about 250 yards or so and a lot of the post-game calls gripe about the run defense. Nevertheless, this will be a much-needed breather for the Volunteers. Tennessee 56, Louisiana-Lafayette 24.
LSU at Alabama
Should we call it the Saban Bowl? Or just what it is—the game of the year to this point in the SEC? LSU had 33,000 requests for its allotted 7,000 tickets at Alabama, a clear indication its fans want to see Saban take a drilling. Only thing is, the Crimson Tide are better than anyone imagined, a reflection on Saban’s ability to fashion the most from what he has. Nevertheless, the Tigers have more talent and at some point, doesn’t talent trump Xs and Os, particularly when that talent has had a week to heal up? LSU 27, Alabama 20.
South Carolina at Arkansas
I think the Gamecocks will win this one—if they play with the aggression they showed in the second half at Tennessee. But you can’t tell which version of Blake Mitchell will show up from one week to the next. Nor can you predict if South Carolina’s run defense can hold up against Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Even so, the Razorbacks seem too one-dimensional this year and one-dimensional teams rarely succeed in this league. South Carolina 30, Arkansas 28.
Wave goodbye to Coker
Nov 02, 2007LaMarcus Coker was officially declared out of Tennessee’s football program Friday.
Coach Phillip Fulmer dismissed the talented but troubled tailback two days after Coker drew his fourth suspension as a Volunteer.
“He did not do what was asked of him,” Fulmer said in a press release. “I want a positive environment for our athletes to learn and grow. LaMarcus is a talented young man with a lot of life in front of him.”
Coker led UT in rushing last year, but was suspended for several practices before the team’s Outback Bowl loss to Penn State.
He then drew a three-week ban in August for undisclosed medical reasons and sat out the Vols’ opening game, a 45-31 loss at California. He appeared ready to claim more playing time after rushing for 101 yards in a home win over Arkansas State.
Coker’s only other highlight, though, was a clutch 37-yard kickoff return last week to set up a game-tying field goal at regulation’s end against South Carolina.
When Coker was originally suspended for Saturday’s game with Louisiana-Lafayette earlier this week, writers and columnists around Tennessee questioned why Fulmer didn’t boot him then, recalling Fulmer’s comments in August after he allowed Coker to return.
“He understands he’s on his last chance,” Fulmer told The Tennesseean.
That last chance ran out today.
(For more details and a full preview of tomorrow’s game, read my preview in the Herald Courier)
Calling an audible
Oct 25, 2007Quick audible ... now that Matt Ryan’s Heisman hopes haven’t yet faded in the Blacksburg rain. All you can say about his last four minutes is wow. Who knew he had that kind of scrambling ability to get away from defensive linemen and make plays?
The big arm’s never been a question and his stats going into this game couldn’t be doubted. But when you bring a team back from certain defeat against a really good defense on the road, that creates a lasting memory with the voters.
Too many tailbacks?
Oct 25, 2007Long-time Virginia Tech running backs coach Billy Hite is fond of saying that you never have too many tailbacks.
If Kurt Roper feels differently, there’s a good reason.
Roper, the running backs coach at Tennessee, has three SEC-quality veteran tailbacks and a freshman who could take snaps at several places now. What he doesn’t have are enough snaps to accommodate them all.
That leads to situations like last week, when backup Montario Hardesty was none too pleased with never seeing the field in a 41-17 loss at Alabama.
You couldn’t blame Hardesty, who had rushed for 146 yards on 30 carries in the previous two games—wins over Georgia and Mississippi State. And to an extent, Roper couldn’t blame him.
“I’m OK with him being unhappy [about not playing],” Roper said. “He should have played.”
It became more of an issue when Hardesty missed a rare Sunday practice and at first, didn’t appear to tell anyone. But he had left a text message with Roper before the 7:30 p.m. workout started and Roper didn’t check his messages until after practice.
Count on Hardesty getting at least one play from scrimmage Saturday night against South Carolina. The Gamecocks allow more than 177 yards per game on the ground and the Volunteers have been running the ball well for a month.
But Roper isn’t changing his rotation to appease Hardesty. Arian Foster, who is quietly having a terrific season, will start, with LaMarcus Coker first off the bench. Then it will be Hardesty, with maybe a dose of freshman Lennon Creer.
“Arian, Coker and Hardesty could all start and play a whole game if they were healthy and fresh,” Roper said. “Lennon’s behind those guys, but I’m very pleased with what he’s done. We have good football players in that room.”
Unless an injury or two strikes, you could almost say there are too many. Certainly more there than in any of the defensive rooms.
The Weekly Guessing Game
Time for another week of SEC picks, always a risky proposition in any year but especially this crazy season.
We were 4-2 last week, missing on Alabama’s dumptrucking of the Vols and Vanderbilt’s stunning domination of South Carolina. It would have been 3-3 were it not for Les Miles’ brassy play call in the last seconds that enabled LSU to survive Auburn.
Mississippi State at Kentucky
If the Wildcats have a letdown after consecutive games against South Carolina, LSU and Florida, it’s understandable. But even though the Bulldogs were good enough to win at Auburn, they’re lacking in offensive firepower even if Kentucky is a little flat. Hard as it is to believe, the start of Billy Gillespie’s basketball era at UK might fly as under the radar as hoops ever flies in Lexington. Andre Woodson’s Heisman chances look better with Matt Ryan’s predictable fadeout in the Blacksburg rain. Kentucky 34, Mississippi State 20.
Florida International at Arkansas
The less said about this one, the better. Just suffice it to say Darren McFadden and Felix Jones should have a field day—for however long they stay on the field—against perhaps the worst team in Division I-A. Arkansas 49, Florida International 7.
Miami (Ohio) at Vanderbilt
Impartiality aside, you had to feel good for Vandy coach Bobby Johnson, a nice guy who is two wins away from taking the Commodores to their first bowl game in 25 years. Not only did Vandy beat South Carolina, it controlled the game wire-to-wire. While there will be somewhat of a letdown this week, the Commodores should still have enough to beat their Mid-American Conference foe and get to five wins. Vanderbilt 24, Miami (Ohio) 7.
Florida vs. Georgia
On paper, the Bulldogs don’t look like a good bet against the explosive Gators. But Florida has a lot of injuries, including QB Tim Tebow, who will play despite a sore shoulder. What’s more, Georgia has had a week off to recharge. An open date before a big game worked pretty well for Tennessee and Florida earlier this month. Why can’t it work as well for a solid coach like Mark Richt? Besides, why not one more crazy upset in the craziest division in college football? Georgia 23, Florida 21.
Mississippi at Auburn
Even the Tigers’ pedestrian offense should rack up some big numbers against this sorry Rebels defense. Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron is probably in the last month of his three years in Oxford. Think they’d like David Cutcliffe back there about now? Auburn 38, Mississippi 17.
South Carolina at Tennessee
Think ESPN would like to have a mulligan on its choice for the prime-time game after the tank jobs these teams pulled a week ago? The loser is pretty much out of the East race and if that loser is Tennessee, you think the fire under Phillip Fulmer’s chair will be hotter than Memphis in August? However, the trends point to a Vols win. They’ve played much better at home and the Gamecocks have issues on offense. Tennessee 27, South Carolina 20.
