By From the Archives

Published: July 16, 2009

Anyone can make predictions before a tournament, but it takes a real coward to make them after play has already started. Either way, here’s how I see things shaking out after the first round of the British Open:

Tom Watson—(Currently tied for second after time traveling to 1977)—One of my fondest memories is watching Watson duel Jack Nicklaus at Turnberry in 1977. Of course, I didn’t see it live, it being played five years before I was born, but Golf Channel Classics is a beautiful thing. The great thing about that tournament was the way Watson stood up to Nicklaus. It showed real guts, the kind that are obviously lacking when anyone, except maybe Bob May, takes on Tiger. Still, somewhere along the way Watson became deathly afraid of the 3-foot putt. Who can blame him, right? It’s agony. And while I’d like to pick Watson as a sentimental winner, that hitch in his putting stroke started resurfacing late in his round. I see him posting a few shots over par on Friday, before becoming an afterthought by the weekend.

Rory McIlroy—(Currently tied for 37th after a one-under 69)—OK, he didn’t set the world on fire when he needed to. Turnberry on Thursday was as gentle as the monster is going to be this year. Even AARP members were throwing up low numbers. Still, McIlroy is a talented kid. He kind of reminds me of Sergio back when Sergio wasn’t such a whiner. I don’t think McIlroy knows he should be nervous yet. He’s already won and has maybe the best up-and-coming swing of anyone this side of Anthony Kim. He’ll go low either Saturday or Sunday to get near the mix, but doesn’t grab the brass ring. Yet.

Steve Stricker—(Currently tied for fifth after a four-under 66)—I didn’t see him play on Thursday, but I bet it went something like this: Boring. Yes, Steve Stricker plays in the same dull, passive manner of Jim Furyk. Dull and passive like a fox. The guy never seems to miss a should-make-it putt and his long game, well, it’s just solid. For some reason, though, this doesn’t seem like his major to win. Maybe a U.S. Open, but putting never seems to be at a premium at the British, and that’s where Super Steve excels. He’ll finish in the top-10, though.

Padraig Harrington—(Currently tied for 37th after a one-under 69)—The two-time defending champ is hoping to enter the Kobe-and-Shaq, Michael Jordan three-peat zone. After watching him play Thursday, there’s no way this happens. Perhaps no one plays with more grit and focus (Have you seen those eyes when he’s in contention? I can’t tell if he’s just following the ball or giving it last rites) but Paddy’s swing is in flux right now. He had Dr. Bob Rotella—the sports psychologist whose “Golf is Not a Game of Perfect” remains the authority for golf headcases—following him around leading up to the tourney. This tells me the guy is not in quite the right frame of mind to win his third consecutive Open. He makes the cut, but struggles around par all weekend.

(A side note: My mother bought me “Golf is Not a Game of Perfect” when I was on the high school golf team. After plunking three balls into the pond during a prep qualifier, I immediately tossed the book in after the balls, after forcefully removing the hardcover. Some people are beyond help.)

Tiger Woods—(Currently tied for 68th after a one-over 71)—Why is it that no one ever comments on Tiger’s mutilation of his golf clubs? He blocks a drive? There goes a club. Hits it in the burn? There goes a club. His language would make Red Fox cringe. Yet, every time it happens the commentators look the other way, or, even worse, say something like, “He’s such an intense competitor.“ How many kids do you think are going to grow up watching him and think, “Well, I hit a bad shot. Tiger throws his clubs after a bad shot. Maybe I should, too.“ Anyway. No matter how many clubs he throws, Tiger’s not winning his first major (post-op) this week. He does have the game to get back into this, but I don’t know if it will be enough. If the weather turns bad, he won’t go low enough to challenge the leaders and if it stays pretty there’s bound to be at least a handful of the 68 golfers ahead of him that take it even lower. And Tiger’s a front runner. In his three Open wins, he was second, first and second, respectively, after the first round.

The Winner

Miguel Angel Jimenez—(Currently in first after six-under 64)—I know, choosing the leader after the first round to win it all is even more craven than making your predictions after the first round. Still, the guy is 45, has been playing on the European Tour forever (so he knows the lay of the land over there), he’s been a stalwart on more than a few Ryder Cup team, and, yes, I think he’s due. That’s it. That’s all I’m really basing it on. And who else is going to challenge him if he continues to play well? Tiger? Too far back. Phil? Not there. Paddy? His game is no where near ready. So by process of elimination “The Mechanic” is your 2009 British Open winner. Sorry to spoil the surprise.